Post by Frosty the Pirate on Oct 14, 2021 13:36:28 GMT -5
www.warhammer-community.com/2021/10/14/metawatch-how-did-going-first-affect-win-rate-at-the-warhammer-open-new-orleans/
I'm tempted to talk about how there's very little meat in these gym mats. Because there's _almost_ nothing to talk about here.
Except there's 3 big things the article didn't talk about at all.
1) Without faction _counts_ win rate doesn't tell the whole story. A few strong players can put an generally underperforming faction on tilt in result sets like these if they are unpopular, while popular factions can actually have their win-rates under-reported due to more average generals choosing to bring their most-competitive faction or a copy-paste netlist.
TLDR: The faction win rate table is essentially useless without supporting data.
2) Oddly enough, I had this same Go First Go Second discussion the other night during a game, where both of us wanted to roll low on the go-first roll so we could go second. TTT has also had this discussion on every stream recently how they almost always want to go second. Essentially, if you aren't playing WAAC tournament alpha-strike style lists, going second can be a HUGE advantage if you are built around certain secondaries that resolve at end of battle round. Going back to my mention of my game the other night, both of us ended up picking Grind Them Down as a secondary, and because I "lost" the roll off and had to go first, every turn I had to work extremely hard to 'set' the GTD count, while at the same time trying to limit my exposure to return fire so I didn't just get into a pure contest of attrition. Many popular Secondaries really want you to go second for maximum metagaming, it's only at the very top levels of play and most-broken army combos that improper-terrain and alpha-strikes seem to become a problem and tilt the meta to go-first-or-go-home.
3) The new kids on the block (Orks, GK, Tsons) are all looking very healthy, but I think GK finally "broke" the Space Marine Dread-Spam build that has been dominating some metas as Dreadknight Spam appears to be a granite-solid-hardcounter to that build. Orks also look primed to explode into S-tier with the arrival of Squigsaurs Bosses and Kill Rigs being added onto the already incredible Freebooters and Goffs builds tearing about. I hope to be wrong about Orks as I'd hate to see them need more than very tiny adjustments, and feel they are in a very good place with their new book.
We're about 5 weeks away from Austin as the final leg of the US Open journey, and I'd expect to see a CA/FAQ bomb drop sometime in mid/late December that is heavily influenced by the combined US Open results.
EDIT: Please remember all the above is just my opinions, and I'm some random guy on the internet. I'm not some omnipotent infallible being who is telling you how it is. This is all written to provoke thought and discussion.
I'm tempted to talk about how there's very little meat in these gym mats. Because there's _almost_ nothing to talk about here.
Except there's 3 big things the article didn't talk about at all.
1) Without faction _counts_ win rate doesn't tell the whole story. A few strong players can put an generally underperforming faction on tilt in result sets like these if they are unpopular, while popular factions can actually have their win-rates under-reported due to more average generals choosing to bring their most-competitive faction or a copy-paste netlist.
TLDR: The faction win rate table is essentially useless without supporting data.
2) Oddly enough, I had this same Go First Go Second discussion the other night during a game, where both of us wanted to roll low on the go-first roll so we could go second. TTT has also had this discussion on every stream recently how they almost always want to go second. Essentially, if you aren't playing WAAC tournament alpha-strike style lists, going second can be a HUGE advantage if you are built around certain secondaries that resolve at end of battle round. Going back to my mention of my game the other night, both of us ended up picking Grind Them Down as a secondary, and because I "lost" the roll off and had to go first, every turn I had to work extremely hard to 'set' the GTD count, while at the same time trying to limit my exposure to return fire so I didn't just get into a pure contest of attrition. Many popular Secondaries really want you to go second for maximum metagaming, it's only at the very top levels of play and most-broken army combos that improper-terrain and alpha-strikes seem to become a problem and tilt the meta to go-first-or-go-home.
3) The new kids on the block (Orks, GK, Tsons) are all looking very healthy, but I think GK finally "broke" the Space Marine Dread-Spam build that has been dominating some metas as Dreadknight Spam appears to be a granite-solid-hardcounter to that build. Orks also look primed to explode into S-tier with the arrival of Squigsaurs Bosses and Kill Rigs being added onto the already incredible Freebooters and Goffs builds tearing about. I hope to be wrong about Orks as I'd hate to see them need more than very tiny adjustments, and feel they are in a very good place with their new book.
We're about 5 weeks away from Austin as the final leg of the US Open journey, and I'd expect to see a CA/FAQ bomb drop sometime in mid/late December that is heavily influenced by the combined US Open results.
EDIT: Please remember all the above is just my opinions, and I'm some random guy on the internet. I'm not some omnipotent infallible being who is telling you how it is. This is all written to provoke thought and discussion.
