Post by Frosty the Pirate on Oct 20, 2021 9:12:42 GMT -5
I always look forward to these because they give a LOT of details about the state of the competitive meta, and tend to provide insights into what factions will receive nerfs, as well as what factions might be underperforming because of the over-performance of others.
www.goonhammer.com/the-october-2021-40k-meta-review/
My reaction to this is that this is confirming a lot of what we've seen lately from GT results.
TLDR version of the key points from my perspective:
Drukhari are over-performing on mid-tables, because the average Drukhari list is too good, this leads to to strong/hot-streak players pushing up into the top tables. Drukhari have essentially only 2 bad matchups: Mirror matches, and Admech. They seem highly likely to get some efficiency drops across large swaths of their book. (aka small/moderate points increases to several units that are slightly/somewhat too good, as opposed to large back-breaking nerfs) This will likely invalidate a lot of current builds and reduce their overall model count on the table.
Admech are over-performing as well, with average (DA, SW, Scars) to bad (DW, BA, Hands) matchups into several Space Marine sub-factions, with one key standout. Admech absolutely pummel Ultramarines, including the extremely-popular Ultra-Dread build. However, their slight edge on Drukhari and the popularity of Drukhari is partly what's propelling them into event wins. Drukhari and Admech both make it through the gatekeeper factions, and then as the field narrows and a high percentage of Drukhari and Admech players run into each other, the Admech players with well built lists are edging them out.
These two factions make up 52% of GT event winners in the past 3 months.
GK have a very-healthy win-rate and faction balance but are currently on an unsustainable rocket ship into the top-tier because they are so good at beating Drukhari. When Drukhari are toned down a little, GK will also see their win rate drop slightly since there will be less Drukhari for them to beat up on. The problem is they have traditionally bad matchups into Orks and Craftworlds, and as orks continue to rise they _should_ start to oppose the GK numbers and bring them back down a notch or two.
TSons are interesting, their introduction has pulled a ton of Death Guard players over to their side, heavily reducing Death Guard's meta presence. They also have bad matchups into a number of newer factions including GK, Admech, Drukhari. So this has limited how far towards the top they can rise until some balance changes come. However, they have FIRMLY put a what I think is the final coffin nail in Harleqiuns early-9th success in index-land. Between TSons and GK I think harlies run is over until they get their book.
Orks are primed to explode. While their average-mid-table builds tend to underperform, when they are built to win, they are a menace. They are being kept in check by Drukhari, and have a horrible matchup into Knights. Again, if we see Drukhari Nerfs in the next points/FAQ/CA update I feel like Orks are going to take off to the stratosphere.
There's lots of cool things in Primary and Secondary scoring to talk about in details too, but basically what it boils down to is Hold 1/2 Missions are much less likely to be blowout victory/losses than Hold 2/3 missions, and on Hold 2/3 missions choosing high-ceiling secondaries that can score 12+ points will often win you the game since primary scores are lower.
In particular, The Scouring with 5 Objectives and Hold 2/3 primary is a very low scoring game, and having high ceiling secondary's if you play this mission are a MUST if you want to win.
Grind Them Down is a secondary also starting to rise in popularity and is being picked almost as often as other secondaries you can build around like To The Last, Stranglehold, and Raise Banners. However nothing holds a candle to the popularity of Engage/ROD.
www.goonhammer.com/the-october-2021-40k-meta-review/
My reaction to this is that this is confirming a lot of what we've seen lately from GT results.
TLDR version of the key points from my perspective:
Drukhari are over-performing on mid-tables, because the average Drukhari list is too good, this leads to to strong/hot-streak players pushing up into the top tables. Drukhari have essentially only 2 bad matchups: Mirror matches, and Admech. They seem highly likely to get some efficiency drops across large swaths of their book. (aka small/moderate points increases to several units that are slightly/somewhat too good, as opposed to large back-breaking nerfs) This will likely invalidate a lot of current builds and reduce their overall model count on the table.
Admech are over-performing as well, with average (DA, SW, Scars) to bad (DW, BA, Hands) matchups into several Space Marine sub-factions, with one key standout. Admech absolutely pummel Ultramarines, including the extremely-popular Ultra-Dread build. However, their slight edge on Drukhari and the popularity of Drukhari is partly what's propelling them into event wins. Drukhari and Admech both make it through the gatekeeper factions, and then as the field narrows and a high percentage of Drukhari and Admech players run into each other, the Admech players with well built lists are edging them out.
These two factions make up 52% of GT event winners in the past 3 months.
GK have a very-healthy win-rate and faction balance but are currently on an unsustainable rocket ship into the top-tier because they are so good at beating Drukhari. When Drukhari are toned down a little, GK will also see their win rate drop slightly since there will be less Drukhari for them to beat up on. The problem is they have traditionally bad matchups into Orks and Craftworlds, and as orks continue to rise they _should_ start to oppose the GK numbers and bring them back down a notch or two.
TSons are interesting, their introduction has pulled a ton of Death Guard players over to their side, heavily reducing Death Guard's meta presence. They also have bad matchups into a number of newer factions including GK, Admech, Drukhari. So this has limited how far towards the top they can rise until some balance changes come. However, they have FIRMLY put a what I think is the final coffin nail in Harleqiuns early-9th success in index-land. Between TSons and GK I think harlies run is over until they get their book.
Orks are primed to explode. While their average-mid-table builds tend to underperform, when they are built to win, they are a menace. They are being kept in check by Drukhari, and have a horrible matchup into Knights. Again, if we see Drukhari Nerfs in the next points/FAQ/CA update I feel like Orks are going to take off to the stratosphere.
There's lots of cool things in Primary and Secondary scoring to talk about in details too, but basically what it boils down to is Hold 1/2 Missions are much less likely to be blowout victory/losses than Hold 2/3 missions, and on Hold 2/3 missions choosing high-ceiling secondaries that can score 12+ points will often win you the game since primary scores are lower.
In particular, The Scouring with 5 Objectives and Hold 2/3 primary is a very low scoring game, and having high ceiling secondary's if you play this mission are a MUST if you want to win.
Grind Them Down is a secondary also starting to rise in popularity and is being picked almost as often as other secondaries you can build around like To The Last, Stranglehold, and Raise Banners. However nothing holds a candle to the popularity of Engage/ROD.
